ESPN has this goofy thing called a Football Power Index. It is an analytic prediction model that they use to assess which teams will make it to the Super Bowl, win divisions and finish last in the NFL. Historically I do not know how accurate it is because like most things in the sports world they never write stories about how wrong they are. I want to address the FPI for the Bengals and if they are right how that could play out.
The Bengals have the third worst FPI index, beating only Jacksonville (23%) and Washington (13%). This matters because if it is correct it will dictate draft order in 2021. The golden goose is still Trevor Lawrence from Clemson (though a lot of Ohio people like Justin Fields). We are set at QB though for the next four years at least so let’s pretend the FPI is close to being right but the Bengals fall to last and get the first overall pick next year.
Two teams in 2021 have more than one first round pick so far and that is Jacksonville and Miami. Miami just took Tua so they will not be in the QB market in 2021. Jacksonville could use their #2 or #3 overall pick (wherever they end up) and their LA Rams pick (projected to be #16) to move up to take Trevor Lawrence. The price for Joe Burrow was at least three first round picks and the rumor was that Miami offered that. Next year might be no different. What could this do for the Bengals?
The Bengals could trade out of #1 and get the #3 and #16 pick. Jacksonville may have to give up a 2nd round pick or 2022’s 1st round pick as well. They take Penei Sewell (OT) who is one of the highest rated tackles in a NFL draft in a long time. At #16 they either take the best player available (likely a LB, TE, WR or DE) or trade down to acquire more picks in rounds two and three. Maybe even a team (Patriots) come in and offer picks 1-7 like the 1999 Saints.
How realistic is this? Well with the FPI index saying that we win 5.6 games in 2020 and the Jags are to win 4.9 (Skins at 5.5) we are really talking a one-win difference. I said that the Bengals will win 6 or 7 games in 2020 and that is a step in the right direction coming off a 2-win season.
I know, I know why the heck are we even talking about the 2021 draft and how the Bengals could disappoint us with being the worst team in the league. It’s similar to how the Philadelphia 76ers got to contention with having so many #1 draft picks and re-building quickly. I am not suggesting that we tank either.