The awesome guys at cincyjungle.com posted a good writeup which highlighted some analysis done by Tim Dix at Medium.com. It was compelling enough for me to click the link to the analysis because it talked about Joe Burrow….and COVID, because what the heck else do I have to do. The analysis is about arm strength of the top QBs taken in the draft and it will make your mind explode. So instead of you having to make sense of everything I am going to put it in terms that even a Browns fan could understand.
Dix took a look a more than 400 throws from players who were considered the top 4 QBs in the 2020 draft. Those players are Joe Burrow our Lord and Savior, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love and Justin Herbert. His analysis yielded who has the fastest release and the strongest arm.
Dix then broke his analysis down by three major categories: arm strength (speed velocity), release time (how fast is the ball thrown from wind up to release) and trigger time (how fast a QB makes the throw once he locks onto his target). Here are the overall results:
Arm Strength
Here comes the English. Let’s talk arm strength first. Love has the strongest arm of the class followed by Herbert, Burrow and Tua. To put it all in context he switched the numbers over from throwing a football to throwing a baseball which dumbed it down for me a lot. Joe Burrow throws a 92.7 mph fastball. Josh Allen brings the Aroldis Chapman heat with 104.3 mph. Smokin’! In comparison Love throws 97.7 mph and Herbert 96.0 mph. Tua has a limp arm with 88. mph. The NFL average is 95.2 mph. He later explains that this is due to the arm length of a player and an inch of arm equals 2 more mph. Translation: Joe Burrow throws with below average NFL QB arm strength compared to 18 starting QBs.
Dix specifically mentions Burrow and says “Burrow, on the other hand (Herbert) has good-but-not-great zip on his fastball. His arm isn’t mind-blowing, but it’s also not a concern. Burrow’s greatest asset, as we’ll see in the trigger time is his mental processing.“
Release Time
This is the time that it takes from when a QB begins cocking back to the millisecond it is released. This makes up for a lot of arm strength problems for most QBs (like Tua). Tua has the best and by far quickest in the NFL. He is even faster than Dan Marino. Joe Burrow and Herbert are tied at 0.40 seconds and are below the average of 0.39. Tom Brady has a release of 0.39. Translation: Joe Burrow has a NFL average arm release comparable to Tom Brady.
Trigger Time
Dix believes that this might be the most important metric of all of them because it measures the time it takes to start their throwing motion after they choose their receiver. It measures how fast a QB can process the field and find open throws. In Dix’s words “it’s the trait that makes Joe Burrow absolutely special. His visual processing speed is unlike any quarterback I’ve ever seen. On average it takes Burrow only 0.35 seconds to pull the trigger on a throw. That’s the quickest QB I’ve analyzed for this metric…”
More cool info on Burrow is “the amount of time Burrow needs to decide if a receiver is “open” or “not open” is insanely small. On (the provided) play, outside of the first read, he spends no more than 0.333 seconds looking in the direction of any one receiver. It takes the human brain at least 0.2 seconds to process visual stimuli. So, here, he’s making the decision to throw or not in 0.133 seconds or less. For reference, that’s about how long a flash of lightening lasts.”
Dix went on and analyzed throws from Burrow at his time with OSU in 2016 and LSU in 2018. That decision-making was just as quick. In Dix’s mind this is the single-most predictor of success. The average trigger time of the QBs he analyzed was 0.53. Translation: Burrow can process faster than anyone else to find his target. That is probably a good thing given the lack of time he will have in the pocket.
Conclusion
I am just going to straight rip this off from his text because it says it all, Joe Burrow is the most likely to succeed of these four QBs. It makes me excited, brings chills and makes me believe that we nailed this for the next 15 seasons:
“Situation is everything, but Burrow has all the tools needed to succeed at the next level. It’s not mentioned in this analysis, but his mobility is also a huge asset. Combined with his quick decision making, this can get him out of trouble and keep the defense honest. Tucking the ball and rushing for seven and eight yard chunks was a big part of LSU’s success in 2020.“
“Now, I hate to make comparisons to all-time greats because it implies a similar career trajectory, but — when talking about vision, biomechanics, and physical abilities — Joe Burrow’s game really does have shades of Joe Montana’s. It’s uncanny, actually. Again, situation is everything. Montana probably doesn’t win four rings without Bill Walsh and Jerry Rice involved. I’m certainly not saying I expect that from Burrow. But the comparison is not unfounded.“
“A lower-ceiling player comparison I like for Burrow is Jake Plummer. Plummer was a good quarterback in the NFL for a long time and he used his wheels to get out of trouble much like Burrow should be able to do.”
Translation: Joe Burrow is the next Joe Montana.
Special thanks to Tim Dix, this was truly awesome!