ESPN recently published the “Most Improved Teams” list and of course the Bengals were up there on the rankings. They came up second behind the Miami Dolphins who had half the first-round selection in the draft and dropped $200M on a bunch of middle-tier players.
The Bengals went about their offseason a little differently. They have a quick rebuild and win model that is all contingent upon Burrow being as good as well all think he is. Adding Reader and Bell are a serious sign of that. I also expect Mixon to get locked up to fit into this plan. The formula is simple, win a Super Bowl with a rookie deal QB before you must give him 30% of your cap space. It looks like this:
Year 1: Test the waters and surround him with pieces to get experience. Burrow has that right now. You can argue that the Bengals have one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. He has a Top-10 running back and an offensive that has been revamped around him. On the defensive side of the ball the Bengals addressed their biggest needs: secondary and linebacker. Year 1 allows younger LBs to get experience and the hope is that you hit big on one of them. The defensive line is shored up for the next three years assuming they keep Hubbard and Dunlap around.
Year 2: Burrow makes another jump and the Bengals make the playoffs. In the offseason they address the offensive line and whatever did not work during the season. Tee Higgins is emerging and perhaps completely replaces AJ Green. Drew Sample either panned out or we are in the market for a FA tight end because the window is approaching, and we cannot be without one. The defense rebounds from being terrible in 2019, to really good in 2020 to dominant in 2021. What better weapon for that offense than a great defense?
Year 3: This is the big one. Burrow has settled in; the offensive line has been rebuilt and those young linebackers are aged and primed. The secondary is on the last years of their deals and the defensive line is still one of the best in the league. The wide receivers and running back are intact. You add a piece or two in the offseason through FA and hope that you can draft a starter in the draft. This is the season you make a run at the Super Bowl.
Year 4: If Year 3 was not a Super Bowl then it must be Year 4. This is a contract year for a lot of guys and Burrow is coming up on his mega-deal. Everyone that matters is a veteran and you hope that you have filled in the gaps if you lost guys like Atkins and Dunlap by this point. Those are draftable positions and you use your cap to plug holes quickly. This is still the window.
Year 5: Everything gets expensive and you must make tough decisions. Either Burrow has been to Pro Bowls and maybe a MVP by this point or you are in the draft and rebuild market all over again. The window is slipping, and it is all or nothing.