Joe Mixon is still unsigned long-term and with AJ Green now on the franchise tag officially, the focus can shift to getting a deal done. Where does he stand and what has occurred to effect his contract value?
Derrick Henry Effect
At the wire the Tennessee Titans struck a long-term deal with Derrick Henry. 4 years and $50M later they had their star running back locked up and ready to carry the team to the playoffs again. Henry’s deal makes him the 4th highest paid running back, trailing only Zeke, McCaffrey and Bell. It makes his average salary of $12.5M per year the 5th highest in the league. A bar has been set here, if you run for 1,540 yards and 16 TDs you aren’t getting more than 4/$50M even if you account for most of the offense.
2021 Free Agents
The guys over at Cincyjungle.com did a nice job writing about the 2021 FA class so I won’t repeat them. There are at least 14 starting caliber free agents in 2021 if no one signs a deal (and some will). This is high supply and low demand. Running back has been a de-valued position in the pass heavy NFL and dropping a ton of money on a guy doesn’t always translate to wins and offensive production. Look at the Bengals for instance, we have a top 5-10 running back and our offense stunk last season. Meanwhile you can plug-n-play with a great offensive line (cough cough New England) and generate a great offense. If half of the 14 guys hit FA next season that is still a lot, and teams are likely to pass and just draft in an already heralded running back draft class.
Contract Impact
On May 6th I valued a Mixon deal at 4 years, $14M per year and $27M in guaranteed money. Henry’s deal is making me revise these numbers because Joe isn’t getting more than Derrick Henry. I can see now a 4 year, $12M per year with $25M in guaranteed with a 5th year option. That would put him on the FA market at 28 years old again and would ensure (if healthy and productive) one more good contract before being discarded by the league. Essentially Joe Mixon just lost $2.5M (at least) because of not coming to terms with the Bengals.
I think we all want to see Joe Mixon signed long-term and he has certainly earned it. Paying running backs is a tough pill to swallow sometimes but Joe’s health, age and grind makes him a perfect piece to surround Joe Burrow with for the next 4-5 years. Get this man signed.