This is going to be met with a lot of controversary and I can self admit that I had trouble with it myself. Green is not only a fan favorite, a franchise face, a stats machine (when healthy) but also an overall great guy. I don’t want to see him in anything but stripes but the reality is that letting Green go after a one-year franchise deal is probably best for the team. Here are my X reasons why AJ should not be re-signed long-term:
#1: Green is 32
This is the most obvious factor so I want to get it out of the way. His 32nd birthday is 7/31 and for NFL wide receivers this is over-the-hill. Yes he is special. Yes players like Larry Fitzgerald is still playing at 90. Sure, TO looked good in his final years. A 2017 study by Apex Sports yielded otherwise though and determined that 27 was the peak age for a WR. That tracks EXACTLY to one of Green’s best year in 2017 where he caught for 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns. AJ is special but Father Time always wins.
#2: 23/24 Games Missed
Speaking of Father Time the other obvious reason is AJ’s latest injury history. Sure he could have come back late last season to help out the team but at that point it was a wash and we were tanking for Tua/bombing for Burrow. I can’t blame him on that one and coming back in 2020 healthy was critical for a new contract for him. AJ only played in 9 games though in 2018 and missed the rest. To be the man that AJ is on the field for his QB he actually has to be out there. It is no different than Eifert. He was amazing, except for all of the concussions and injuries that held him back from playing. I hope that he is healthy for 16 games in 2020 to really see if he is the AJ of old but his track record is not looking good.
#3: Cost
AJ is going to make $17.865M in 2020. Guys like Julio Jones, Amari Cooper and OBJ are making between $20-$18M per year. AJ is 6th overall. We could expect a 3 year deal to cost the Bengals $19M per season for a guy who might be phased out of WR1. That is a lot to spend on a 33 year old WR who is not part of a youth movement and has talent stacked up behind him (Boyd, Higgins, Tate). Wouldn’t the better use of that $19M per year be spent in giving Joe Burrow more time in the pocket or actual holes for Mixon to run through? For $19M we could get a starting RT and G to add to the OL.
#4: WR Development
A mentioned, the Bengals are stacked behind Green. Tyler Boyd is not only a competent outside guy but is one of the league’s best slot WR. I expect that Joe Burrow is going to find out how much he likes Boyd on crossing routes when time is limited. Tee Higgins was drafted to be Green’s replacement. There it is, I said it. Just like Green replaced Ocho and was paired with Dalton, Higgins and Burrow are going to be the magical duo. Yes I know Green and Higgins scare defenses when paired up but there are only so many balls to go around. For Higgins to emerge as WR1 in the next 2-3 years he needs to be running routes against double-coverage, used as a decoy and face the toughest competition for his own development. Auden Tate needs to see the field too and right now there just aren’t enough balls to go around. John Ross is a non-factor.
#5: Legacy
We all want to see AJ Green in the Hall of Fame. Right now his numbers just aren’t there to do it. He likely needs to win a Super Bowl, maybe 1-2 more Pro Bowl bids and 3,500-4,000 more yards. He currently ranks 67th among all-time receiving yards. AJ Green has never won a playoff game, like many other Bengal legends. I do believe Burrow is going to get us there and probably in the next three years. I would love to see AJ be a part of that but a 3-year deal might not get him to the mountain top. If he were to sign with an immediate contender in 2021 it could only bolster his Hall of Fame potential. I would hate to see him on the Ravens but that would be a good landing spot for him personally. Gross, I can’t believe I just typed that.