If the 2020 season is in fact cancelled the obvious first question that all Bengals fans ask is “do we get the #1 overall 2021 draft pick?” In the words of Gordon Gekko “greed is good” and I would love to see it but I highly doubt that the NFL would just follow the same draft order. Teams that traded away their first round picks to other teams would be double-penalized. The Dolphins would probably be the biggest winners with their three first round picks, thereby making it six in two years. So what could the NFL do? Well look no further than the NBA.
If you do not follow the NBA then you are likely not familiar with the lottery system. At a high level the 14 teams who do not make the playoffs all get an opportunity to pick #1 overall. Each team is given four-number combinations based upon their record, the most combinations are given to the worse teams. This combination totals 1,000 numbers. 14 balls are entered into the hopper and chosen. The first team with the four-number combination gets the overall first pick, the second team the second pick and the third the third pick. After the third pick it goes by overall record. The more detailed version of this process is found here.
So how would this apply to the NFL? First we would remove the playoff teams. The Titans, Bills, Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, Saints, Vikings, Niners and Packers would all be out of the running. The NFL would likely drop all 2019 multiple picks for teams which would only allow the Dolphins, Raiders and Jaguars to have one chance at the top 3.
12 of 32 teams are now eliminated. 20 teams can now have a run at the top 3 pick. The Bengals would have the best odds and a 6.97% chance to get the first overall pick. The Redskins and Lions would have a 6.47% of the first pick in comparison. The Rams who finished 9-7 would have a 3.48% chance.
Let’s say that the Redskins were to win the pick then the Bengals would have a 7.45% chance to receive the #2 overall pick and the Lions would have a 6.91% chance. The Rams would have a 3.72% chance.
Let’s say that the Lions were to win the #2 pick then the Bengals would have an 8.00% chance for the #3 pick, the Giants 6.86% and the Rams 4.00%. If they were to lose then they would be guaranteed the #4 pick overall since it would be based on their 2019 record of 2-14.
So all of this is a big IF and I was also a B+ student in Statistics in college so my math could be wrong. The takeaway is that at worst the Bengals would end up with the 4th overall pick but have the highest chance of any team to receive a top 3 pick. Do not rule out what could happen if a team traded up to receive their statistical possibility. Could the Patriots trade up pre-lottery in the hopes of drafting Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields? Would teams have to wait until after the lottery draw to make the trades? There are a lot of fun scenarios that could happen at this point which could make the 2021 draft absolutely insane.