How important is Rookie of the Year?

Joe Burrow is already favored in Vegas to win offensive rookie of the year. Since he is starting week 1 it is likely he will accrue the stats to back that up and by all accounts people think that Burrow was a hit more than a miss in the draft. This got me thinking, does this even matter? Is ROTY really indicative of how the player turns out? Well apparently it does:

2002	Clinton Portis	Running back	Denver Broncos	HIT
2003	Anquan Boldin	Wide receiver	Arizona Cardinals	HIT
2004	Ben Roethlisberger	Quarterback	Pittsburgh Steelers	HIT
2005	Cadillac Williams	Running back	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	MISS
2006	Vince Young	Quarterback	Tennessee Titans	MISS
2007	Adrian Peterson	Running back	Minnesota Vikings	HIT
2008	Matt Ryan	Quarterback	Atlanta Falcons	HIT
2009	Percy Harvin	Wide receiver	Minnesota Vikings	MISS
2010	Sam Bradford	Quarterback	St. Louis Rams	HIT
2011	Cam Newton	Quarterback	Carolina Panthers	HIT
2012	Robert Griffin III	Quarterback	Washington Redskins	MISS
2013	Eddie Lacy	Running back	Green Bay Packers	MISS
2014	Odell Beckham Jr.	Wide receiver	New York Giants	HIT
2015	Todd Gurley	Running back	St. Louis Rams	HIT
2016	Dak Prescott	Quarterback	Dallas Cowboys	HIT
2017	Alvin Kamara	Running back	New Orleans Saints	HIT
2018	Saquon Barkley	Running back	New York Giants	HIT
2019	Kyler Murray	Quarterback	Arizona Cardinals	too early

I went back 18 years to take a historic look and I was surprised to see how many of these players panned out. Only 5 of 18 turned out to either be busts or not live up to their rookie of the year hype. I could have gone back even farther because these were amazing stats……so I did:

1989	Barry Sanders	Running back	Detroit Lions	HIT
1990	Emmitt Smith	Running back	Dallas Cowboys	HIT
1991	Leonard Russell	Running back	New England Patriots	MISS
1992	Carl Pickens	Wide receiver	Cincinnati Bengals	MISS
1993	Jerome Bettis	Running back	Los Angeles Rams	HIT
1994	Marshall Faulk	Running back	Indianapolis Colts	HIT
1995	Curtis Martin	Running back	New England Patriots	HIT
1996	Eddie George	Running back	Houston Oilers	HIT
1997	Warrick Dunn	Running back	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	HIT
1998	Randy Moss	Wide receiver	Minnesota Vikings	HIT
1999	Edgerrin James	Running back	Indianapolis Colts	HIT
2000	Mike Anderson	Running back	Denver Broncos	MISS

These are some big time names listed above. Only 3/12 misses in that group and that is even a bit subjective. Carl Pickens was a good (not great) receiver and Mike Anderson was a serviceable running back. These other names were elite though.

So should Bengal fans be rooting for Burrow to be offensive rookie of the year….HECK YES! It is a strong indicator that Burrow’s career will work out in a big way.