The $18M Decision – AJ Green

One of the biggest decisions that the Bengals have to make in this offseason is what to do about AJ Green. As we all know Green was injured this entire season and in 2018 he only played 9 games. 9/32 is not exactly a trend that says pay this 31 year old man. The Bengals are really faced with three options regarding Green: 1) sign Green to a 3-4 year deal to finish his career out in Cincinnati, 2) apply the franchise tag to Green in hopes of a healthy season or buying more time to get a long-term deal in place, 3) franchise tag Green and trade him for picks and/or players. Let’s explore each option.

The Top 10 WR’s in the NFL make between $18M (OBJ) and $14.5M (Davante Adams) per year. Green, when on the field, is certainly a premier talent still and will command $18M-$16M/year. I can see a four year deal worth $75M but structured in a way that is more cap friendly in the back-end to hedge on injury or drop off of play (similar to the Andy Dalton contract). Why give Green this much money? Two words: Joe Burrow. Burrow is going to need competent WR play to help him out early. Boyd is great, but he is no AJ. I see a similar comparison to Larry Fitzgerald helping out Josh Rosen….oh I mean Kyler Murray. Fitzgerald is still a productive player, provides stability in the locker room and mentors the QB and future impact players. The other benefit will be a win with the fans who desperately need to believe the Bengals are committed to winning with Burrow. The Bengals certainly have the cap room to make this happen even with extending Mixon, Dennard and Eifert. Sure AJ has not been healthy lately but he is a HOFer and still can make big plays.

A franchise tag is going to cost the Bengals $18M and put them in this same position next year if a long-term deal cannot get worked out. Green has already said that a tag is not ideal for him but its a lot of money that he won’t pass up. He will likely not participate in the offseason program and maybe not even pre-season games. Green said he will not sit out the season but taking snaps to not only come back from injury but also get timing with your new QB cannot be undervalued. The Bengals have been notoriously cheap and tend to tag kickers and not wide receivers. I think AJ is special to them and they would like to see him in tiger stripes his entire career…..but they also thought that about Chad Johnson (until he went full T.O.). The benefit to the cap is that if Green gets injured yet again the Bengals are not strapped with a multi-year deal for a player that can’t get on the field. It’s a bit of a hedge on risk but they could also re-sign Green during the season before the cap cut-off date if he shows to be fully healthy. That seems a bit complicated for the front office so that is not a very likely scenario.

A lot of teams have been rumored to want Green’s services if the Bengals do not take either of the aforementioned deals. The Patriots, Dolphins, Raiders and Ravens would all love to have #18. We aren’t going to just let AJ walk (unless Duke Tobin is a complete idiot….see previous Tobin article) so what can we get for Green in a tag-and-trade deal? My guess is that Green could yield a #1 pick unless you are a team like the Dolphins who likely select high again next year (2 and 4 maybe). If the Patriots are serious about keeping Tom Brady and making one last run then AJ Green makes perfect sense and they love former Bengals (Burkhead, Hill, Ocho). Another option would be to make a trade for a starting LB or OL. I like this option as it assures a quality player whereas the success rate of drafting is not as high. If we could package a deal for AJ and Kirkpatrick (any excuse to get rid of him) for a starting player and a day 2 pick would be a nice consolation prize. The issue with this is what are you then going to surround Burrow with? Boyd is barely a #1 and he is going to need a weapon. Are you going to then take that replacement WR with the 33rd pick in the draft? It is a deep draft class at WR so maybe that is a good play but you are not going to find AJ Green at 33 and below.