All of the talk this week has been about the retirement of Eli Manning and his place among the greats to go into the Hall of Fame. The focus on Eli has been that during his career he was a good but not great QB but has the stats due to not getting injured and a solid defense around him. What puts Eli in the HOF in my opinion is his two Super Bowl wins and matching MVPs. Players like Dan Marino (already in) and Philip Rivers (also on the fringe) never even won Super Bowls but were considered at the top of their peers for at least several seasons (Marino more). In the current NFL era QBs stats have increased wildly and that is due to the passing game focus and speed of the game. As players pass more their stats push past greats like Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas and Phil Simms. It’s a different time so you have to factor that into who and how players make it into the hall. This is why Carson Palmer is never making into the HOF.
Palmer certainly has some stats that look really nice on paper. In his career he passed for 294 TDs, 46,257 yards and a 62.5% passer completion rate. Where does this put him. In yards he ranks 14th currently but will be passed by Matt Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick (maybe), Andy Dalton (maybe) and Russell Wilson. Four out of five of those names are not HOFers. In front of him are sure HOFers such as Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning (maybe), Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan (maybe) and Aaron Rodgers. 6 out of the top 10 are still currently in the league. The statistic is an artifact of the change of time as well as the longevity of careers.
Now let’s look at TDs. Palmer is currently ranked 13th. He has thrown more than Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, Steve Young and Terry Bradshaw. Is he better than any of those players? No. In front of him are pretty much the same players previously mentioned and they are still in the league. Again 6 of the top 10 are still active and he will be surpassed at least by Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and maybe even Ryan Tannehill. Sorry Palmer, also not impressive.
Well Palmer is accurate so that means something right? Palmer is tied for 23rd overall. Guess who has a better completion percentage, Marcus Mariota. Who else you might ask, well Chad Pennington is 3rd all-time and Kirk Cousins is 2nd. Let’s add on Matt Schaub, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford and Dante Culpepper. All of these guys are average QBs and none of them could you argue are HOF material.
Well I didn’t see Eli Manning burning up those numbers and leading anywhere you might say. That is where the 2 Super Bowls and MVPs come into play. Palmer has 5 TDs and 7 INTs in the playoffs with a completion percentage of 56.8%. He has only one win in four games and that first win did not come until he was 36 years old.
So for all of you Carson Palmer lovers out there I have news for you…..he is not bound for the Hall of Fame. Remember who isn’t in there yet and the line he would have to wait in. Even younger active players now like Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and dare I say even Lamar Jackson will surpass his stats and jockey for position against his HOF chances and passing numbers.