Self-admittedly I am not a NFL scout and never will be, but there are certain things you need to see out of a player at the college level to even have a chance in the pros. Tonight Joe Burrow will be facing his toughest opponent all year in the National Championship game. Clemson has the #1 rated defense allowing only 11.5 points per game on average. They have the #1 rated passing defense allowing only 151.5 yards per game and 14th overall in run defense allowing only 112.57 yards per game. This is as close as a NFL team that will size up against Burrow and Clemson will likely have the majority of their defense play in the NFL at some point. So what am I looking for tonight?
#1: Ability to extend plays in the pocket – This is not making a run for a first down, this is avoiding pass rushers, taking steps forward and to the side and giving WR’s an extra second to get open. If there is anything that we have learned in the new NFL it is that players like Watson, Jackson and Mahomes have mastered this and it is paying off.
#2: Finding the second and third options – LSU is stacked at young receivers but Clemson’s corners are the best in the business. This should be a great matchup and Burrow will be expected to look off his primary read and find check-downs, TE’s and third receiver options instead of his one-look-and-throw play. He needs to do this quickly and show that he can read defenses like he did against Oklahoma when he torched them for 8 TDs.
#3: Making plays with his feet – Burrow is a pass-first QB but has earned a lot of money making first downs running down the field. He is not a Tua or Lamar Jackson but he is quick and can get yards. He reminds me a lot of Aaron Rodgers and can avoid LBs and some CBs in an open field while still avoiding big hits This is where the college and pro game really differ in terms of speed. I don’t take too much stock in this stat but having a complete quarterback sure is nice.
#4: Playing down – At some point Clemson will be ahead, how will Burrow rally the team? Inevitably Burrow will be down a lot on this Bengals lineup and we need to see how he responds under pressure and helps the offensive coordinator make adjustments when things aren’t working. Notably this is where the Bengals struggle the most at halftime. Part of this is coaching, part of this is execution.
#5: Answering the big question – If/when LSU wins the title Burrow will be asked the question about joining the Bengals as the #1 overall draft pick. Hopefully he handles it better than an awkward Carson Palmer who’s face screamed….oh God can I just play one more year at USC! Burrow is a Ohio native and having a chance to win the state’s first Super Bowl he needs to realize that Cincinnati fans would build a temple in his honor.
#6: Do not force the ball – Burrow was not a turnover machine and his 6 INTs was tied for 25th in the NCAA. His more impressive 55 TDs was first and an increase of 39 TDs from 2018. In the NFL though some of the best plays are those not attempted and he needs to throw the ball away when the play is not there. The room for error is greater and separation between CBs and WRs is less. Burrow had a 77.6% completion rate, he cannot expect that in the NFL so tonight let’s look for what happens when there is no play to make.